In the best-case scenario, it will take until mid-2023 to announce the result of an eventual primary election to select the candidate who will represent the opposition (aligned with the so-called G4) in the presidential elections in 2024.  This event will also help define the functions of the new political platform that should support the 2024-2025 political-electoral roadmap.

To date, the two general regulations for this process have continuously been drafted as follows: The rules that will be applied in the primary elections and the rules to consolidate the Unity Platform, the instance that replaced the former Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD).

In the ideal schedule of political and electoral events that should encourage the Venezuelan opposition’s reunification, the relegitimization of the political leadership of each party should be completed approximately during the second half of the year, to proceed with the formal call for primary elections and the creation of the Unity Platform.

However, seen politically, no consensus yet exist about decisions that will affect the holding of this event. Pushing aside the political concerns that have not yet been addressed, the opposition’s roadmap will be as follows:

Renewal / Relegitimation of political parties
April-August 2022

This process is being implemented in most of the political organizations with different schemes in each party.

However, to make possible that the relegitimization of political parties’ officials allow progress in the consolidation of the platform that will support the electoral-political roadmap until 2025 and the holding of primary elections, the different processes within the parties must be completed in August 2022.

Reunification of the opposition platform
Abril-June 2022

Two commissions have been created for April 2022: one that will engage in the drafting of the primary regulations and the other to draft the Unity Platform regulations. The regulations to be used to create the body that will support the political and electoral strategy until 2025 should be completed in June 2022.

This regulation should set the basis for the rules for decision making and conflict resolution, as well as define whether the presidential primary elections will also be used as a mechanism to establish the electoral relevance of each party within the platform. The operating rules of the platform are based on the regulations used to guarantee the operating capacity of the Democratic Unity Roundtable.

Opposition primary elections

• Defined regulation: July 2022
• Calling for primary elections: August 2022
• Organizing primary elections: August 2022 – March 2023
• Holding primary elections: March 2023

Two commissions have been created for April 2022: one that will engage in the drafting of the primary regulations and the other to draft the Unity Platform regulations. The commission working on the primary election regulations must wait for the political definition in order to move forward.

The questions that must be addressed highlight the following:

Will the primaries be organized with the CNE’S technical assistance? The decision on this issue will impact the whole schedule. Undertaking the process with the CNE (as happened in 2012) will reduce process preparation times and costs. However, it will limit the participation of Venezuelans abroad. Additionally, if the CNE’s assistance is requested, the primary elections will not include the membership cards of the parties disqualified by the Supreme Court of Justice (AD, Popular Will or Justice First).

Organizing the process without the CNE’s assistance will significantly increase the process organization time and costs. Without the CNE’s assistance, there is a chance to encourage the participation of a sector of Venezuelans abroad. Even if the CNE does not participate, it is not certain that the membership cards of the parties disqualified by the Supreme Court of Justice can be used.

Can Venezuelans abroad vote? The participation of Venezuelans abroad is a crosscutting issue in the political-electoral strategy until 2024.  Even if they do not participate in primary elections, it is necessary to move forward with the census/registration of potential voters outside Venezuela in an attempt to allow them to participate in the 2024 presidential elections.

How will each party’s voting weight be defined if most of the members of the G4 (Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular y Acción Democrática) are not allowed to use their party symbols and any use may lead to or justify the Supreme Court of Justice’s intervention in the process?  

The answer to these questions will significantly affect the timing of grassroots elections. 

Artículos destacados

Para el debate